Date settling for major concerts in the big U.S. arenas, such as Madison Square Garden and the Staple's Center, may appear arbitrary to concertgoers. Yet the truth is that record companies, labels, and venues all use sophisticated statistical tools to determine the viability of concert dates. Unfortunately, no algorithm can predict concert ticket sales completely. There are always "wild card" factors which influence turnout. Courtney Love may experience a bout with the law, Alanis Morissette may get hoarse hours before a performance, or citywide traffic from a different event may prevent hundreds from reaching their seats. That being said, concert sales appear to obey few rules on the microscopic level; on the macroscopic scale, however, statisticians can find plenty of trends. For instance, in 2003, 5.9 percent of all concertgoers entered unticketed. This percentage of unticketed concertgoers has remained incredibly stable for more than a decade at between 5.5 and 6.0 percent. Thus, venues can calculate to a fair degree of accuracy how much money they will lose due to "free seats." One interesting phenomenon is the so-called "Fear of Ticketmaster" which has driven some music concertgoers from the box-office to the Internet. Given the spectacular nature and rarity of concerts, collectors often gather keepsake ticket stubs from events. Mint condition tickets from concerts from the '60s, like the first tour of the Beatles, can fetch hundreds to thousands of dollars at auction. However, even non-mint condition tickets of really cool concerts may be valuable to die-hard fans. |
